Predictions for Friday, November 26th 2021
NOTE: If you wish to get our updates immediately on Wednesday before the market opens, make sure to fill out the prediction survey on Tuesday (and leave your email within the app). We reward our participants with early indications of where the market will end up. Everyone else gets the results a day and a half later.
First, a happy Thanksgiving to all our US readers!
The markets are closed today, so we’ll publish this one earlier than usual (typically we publish on Thursday before market close, in order to reward our competition participants a day and a half earlier than everyone else).
The predictions for Friday, November 26th 2021 are in. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here, or keep following our weekly posts:
Our estimate for the Friday close (this week the markets close earlier, at 1pm on Friday) for our 5 major indicators this week is the following:
We’re expecting the S&P and the Dow to bounce back by Friday from their mid-day Tuesday lows. Interestingly, Wednesday’s close already reached and overshot our Friday targets for both (S&P ended up at 4,701, the Dow at 35,804), so the expected rebound was, so far, a correct prediction. Tomorrow’s trading hours shouldn’t change this by a large margin, so we’ll end up comfortably within our confidence intervals.
This means we’ll almost certainly profit from our SPY iron condor. We bought SPY 26/11 at 464/465 to 472/473, selling 10 contracts for an immediate $400 gain, which we will keep once the contracts expire within the interval.
Due to an expected rebound, we bought two SPY 26/11 calls at 462 strike when SPY was at 466 yesterday morning. As usual, we stand to get between $400 and $1000 if we stay within the interval. If SPY breaks the upper boundary, we get even more from the calls, but lose on the iron condor.
The stock predictions, however, all signal lower values from Tuesday’s open. AAPL is basically expected to stay marginally close to where it was on Tuesday, while with TSLA you can never be too sure these days (Musk was selling again this week). It will probably end lower than Tuesday, but perhaps not as low as our target. GME fell even further than our target, AMC is close to it. Will be interesting to watch tomorrow.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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