Predictions for Friday, October 15th 2021

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Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers, for Friday, October 15th 2021 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators this week is the following:

As you might see, the expectations of this week’s predictors were slightly more conservative, with S&P and the Dow predicted to stay roughly where they were on Tuesday’s open (today’s movements have already reached those levels), while Bitcoin and the 10-year yield were also predicted to go slightly down. We expect however that all indicators will stay firmly within their confidence intervals.

As per these predictions, we bought SPY $428 calls with 15/10 expiry date (using the lower boundary of the C.I. for the strike price), and we used an iron condor for the SPY 15/10 431/432 to 440/441 (so a slightly narrow margin).

Our call is likely to give us around $600 profit, and our iron condor gave us $400 when we sold it, so if it expires outside our C.I.s, we stand to lose in total $600. So if SPY ends up above 441, we will be at $0 for this week. Hedged!

As for the 4 new stocks that we’ve added, here’s what the prediction table looks like:

AAPL and TSLA will be interesting to watch, especially since TSLA has already gone way above our 800 estimate, but so will the meme stocks, GME and AMC (the AMC squeeze was trending again on Twitter yesterday). As explained last time, the meme stocks are particularly difficult to predict given their high volatility. This week will serve as a good example: most of our users see them slightly declining, but then something interesting happens to trigger a rally. It will be very interesting to track their performance over the coming 10 weeks.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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