Predictions for Friday, October 22nd 2021

NOTE: If you wish to get our updates immediately on Wednesday before the market opens, make sure to fill out the prediction survey on Tuesday (and leave your email within the app). We reward our participants with early indications of where the market will end up. Everyone else gets the results a day and a half later.

Our weekly predictions are here, available exclusively to our subscribers (competition participants get it a day and a half earlier), for Friday, October 22nd 2021 (4pm EST; at market close). Keep in mind that our accuracy is much better for low volatility assets, so interpret the predictions with caution. For an overview of our accuracy thus far, see here.

Our estimate for the Friday close for our 5 major indicators this week is the following:

Expectations for this week are a continuation of the trend from the week before. Stronger growth of all indicators, except for the bond yields and oil prices, which are expected to be slightly lower. S&P and the Dow will end higher, as will Bitcoin. The Q3 earnings week will, therefore, be beneficial for equities.

As per these predictions, we bought two SPY $446 calls with 22/10 expiry date (using the lower boundary of the C.I. for the strike price), and we used an iron condor for the SPY 22/10, at 450/451 to 459/460 (a slightly narrow margin, where we profit if it ends in this interval). We sold 10 contracts here.

Our call is likely to give us between $400 and $1000 profit, and our iron condor gave us $400 when we sold it, so if it expires outside our C.I.s, we stand to lose in total $600. Even if SPY ends up above 459, we will still hold a profitable position. Hedged!

As for the 4 new stocks that we’ve added, here’s what the prediction table looks like:

AAPL and TSLA are expected to go higher, and the two meme stocks slightly lower by Friday. TSLA is particularly interesting as it beat its earnings yesterday (the predictions were given on Tuesday, don’t forget), so it is most certainly ending up higher.

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.

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