Results: 6/6 accuracy 🎯
Introducing ORCA podcasts!
Quick summary:
New survey (on our new app) is up & running - click here.
ORCA podcasts - Scott and myself talking about the latest market developments - are up & running on our YouTube channel
It was an excellent week in terms of predictions, we got the direction right for each indicator, and almost all of them were within 1% margin of error
However, the majority of this jump came just before the Wed open, so we couldn’t profit too much, and only had 0.4% gains last week. Not great, not terrible.
Q2 earnings season picks up pace this week, and we get an update on a number of economic indicators
We’re getting a lot of positive reactions from our users on the new app. Very happy to hear you’re enjoying it, and always welcome your helpful feedback.
We fixed the annual leaderboard; now it has the accurate data across all three quarters. No surprise to see the winner from Q1 and Q2 taking up first place:
But the competition here is still tough. A lot of changes are possible from now until the end of the year. Wouldn’t be the first time to witness it.
I’m also happy to see some of our investors on the leaderboards. Kudos for doubling down on your skin in the game :)
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, here is a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
ORCA podcasts
In addition to the wonderful analyses you can read on our newsletter, we’re adding a podcast section to the blog, via our YouTube channel. Every long-read macro analysis (and tactical positioning piece) will be discussed in our podcast. When I say podcast, I basically mean Scott and myself talking about markets. Insightful, interesting, perhaps funny (to someone at least).
So far, we’re not paying too much attention to video quality, or adding any additional material. Content quality is the only thing that matters. We just wanna get it up and running and then adjust as we go on. So open it up in a new tab, and listen while you’re doing some repetitive mundane task (as you always do when listening to podcasts, obviously):
Subscribe to our YouTube channel for more.
Last week’s performance
Despite our stellar predictive performance (see table below), it was actually a tough week to trade from Wednesday onward. CPI came out on Wednesday morning pre-open, so if you positioned for longs on Tuesday, it was an excellent week. Our options position were, as always, bought after the first half hour of Wednesday open, so pretty much at the top of the day. The rest of Wednesday did not fulfill the optimistic gap open, so we ended up negative, having to wait for Thursday’s continued up move to push us back green. Friday was supposed to continue the hype but it too fell short, so we had to satisfy ourselves with only modest gains of an otherwise very up-trending week.
The great news is that our predictions keep improving. We now have 11 out of 15 positive weeks (73%) since the March adjustments, which is stellar performance for the BASON. Notice the precision, 4 indicators coming within less than 1% precision on the target estimates. And all 6 in the right direction. We should start seeing many more of these.
A lot coming up this week too. The earnings season continues; TSLA and NFLX report on Wednesday, we get the rest of the banking sector (BofA, Morgan Stanley, Goldman), plus IBM, Johnson&Johnson, United Airlines and many more. Will be interesting to see the first of the Big 7, TSLA, and how their earnings will respond to investor estimates. Remember, the bar for TSLA was set lower than last time.
In addition to earnings we have economic data coming out. Retail sales, building permits, home sales, and the housing market index. Will the great fundamental/technical divergence continue? Let’s see.
…join the $20,000 competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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