Results: back with a bang!
6/7 called in right direction, 6/7 with errors <1.5%
Quick summary:
New survey is up & running - click here.
A volatile week finished with one of our best performances
6 indicators called in the right direction, 6 had errors <1.5%
$580 in profits collected, up 62% in 2022 (S&P down 15%)
Welcome back, dear subscribers. The competition is officially open for week 9 in Q3 2022. The leaderboard is updated and available within the app. You know the game: get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!
Last week’s accuracy & precision
It was a roller-coaster ride last week :) After a non-eventful Wednesday, S&P shot up 1.4% by end of day on Thursday, killing both of our put positions (took 50% loss on both, see below), taking us out of our VIX position, and almost killing both our condors.
But as we mentioned last week, market expectations for the week were centered around Powell’s Friday Jackson Hole speech. This is what we said on Thursday:
Powell’s Jackson Hole speech is scheduled on Friday. After a drop on Monday, and lackluster Tuesday and Wednesday, our predictions are anticipating a negative effect after Powell’s speech. Perhaps this is the catalyst we’ve been waiting for? Or will the markets greet this with yet another spiral of enthusiasm in the search of a Fed pivot?
BASON says lower. The markets today are trending higher. We shall see :)
Yes, they were trending higher on Thursday in what was increasingly looking like another bad week for us. But then the event came. Powell made a very hawkish speech, indicating that there was no sign of a pivot (slowdown or reversal of the hikes) anytime soon. He doubled down on the Fed’s willingness to hike even more if necessary (signaling a possibility of yet another 75bps hike), and indicated that one month of slightly lower inflation data is clearly not enough for them to stop hiking. On the news, the S&P went down 3.5%, Dow 3%, Nasdaq 4.1%. It was a familiar ending to a week in the 2022 bear market.
And our predictions of that week were spot on!
1% error for S&P, 1.3% for the Dow, almost pinpoint accuracy on BTC and AAPL, and even the 10Y T-bill, despite missing direction.
Performance: profits saved!
As mentioned last week, we opened the following positions:
As per our predictions, this week we're trading 402/403 to 417/418 SPY 26/08 iron condor (10 contracts) for $420 immediate gain. No separate legs this time, because the asymmetry was again unfavorable. Stop loss is at 50% (around $270 max).
We are buying a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 417 put 26/08 for $5.9 per contract.
For DIA we are trading the following iron condor: 321/322 to 331/332 DIA 26/08 (10 contracts) for $350 immediate gain. We are also buying 1 DIA 26/08 321 put for $3.85. Stop loss is at 50% for all.
In addition, we are buying 100 UVXY contracts (note that we changed the VIX EFT that we're buying), at $9.80 per share. 5% stop-loss.
First the puts triggered their 50% stop-loss on Thursday, they lost $484 ($292 for SPY, and $192 for DIA), and the VIX position also reached its stop loss and cost us $49.
Then we did something unconventional on Friday at 10:15 EST, in the middle of Powell’s speech - we doubled down on our shorts, and bought back one SPY put (same strike, same expiry, much cheaper) to make up for the losses made on Thursday. We tweeted about it:
We made $285 on that trade (bought at $2.1, set the take profit at $5), thus cutting back our loss. Also, soon afterwards we closed our condors, pocketing $408 on SPY and $322 on DIA.
Altogether we ended the week with $580. From what it looked like on Thursday close, it was a great ending to a crazy week!
Our overall return is at +240% since we started this competition, and +62% in 2022. The S&P is back to being -15% in 2022, and -4% since we started the competition.
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
And, as always, don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter!