Results: BASON at all time highs
+267% overall, +75% in 2022
Quick summary:
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Last week saw another good performance and a 90%+ return
5/7 correct direction with errors of 1%
This pushed us to a new all time high, +267% overall, +75% in 2022
Awaiting for the FOMC this week
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Last week’s accuracy & precision
It was another week of stellar performance. Errors for the S&P and the DJI were at 0.7% and 0.58%, respectively, while errors for BTC, the 10Y yield and AAPL all came at around 1%. All five were predicted to go in the right direction (lower), with the only real surprise being TSLA - ending up slightly higher from it’s Wed open.
The VIX finished Friday at almost the same level as its Wed open, even though it was running at 28 earlier that day (and well within our directional prediction). The problem was the options expiry-driven mini-rally that happened in the final trading hour on Friday (investors cashing in on their puts, market makers taking the opposite side and markets rallying slightly) - this brought SPX back within our confidence intervals but also sent the VIX down.
The reason I like last week’s performance in particular was that it came after a huge drop on Tuesday (when most of our predictions were made). Typically, this would encourage our users to seek some kind of a reversal over the next few days. Not this time. Peak bearishness is still among us.
This week it’s all about the FOMC meeting and the rate hike of (most likely) 75bps. This rate hike was probably already priced in after Jackson Hole, but the big story now will be forward guidance and the new Fed dot plot graph, giving an updated signal of where the Fed sees rates going in 2023.
Another rally, or a retest of the June lows? You tell us :)
Performance: 90% weekly return
As mentioned last week, we opened the following positions:
As per our predictions, this week we're trading 385/386 to 400/401 SPY 16/09 iron condor (10 contracts) for $420 immediate gain. Stop loss is at 50% (around $280 max).
We are buying a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 400 put 16/09 for $8.1.
For DIA we are trading the following iron condor: 304/305 to 316/317 DIA 16/09 (10 contracts) for $330 immediate gain. We are also buying 1 DIA 16/09 316 put for $4.95. Stop loss is at 50% for both.
Both puts reached their take-profit levels (100% is the trigger) on Friday - SPY was sold at a profit of $814, the DIA for a profit of $490.
The condors were a bit more problematic, but both allowed us to take the premium. DIA was pretty much in the clear the whole time, for a profit of $302 (almost the full premium). SPY was borderline, so when it shot back in the late hours, it managed to secure a $244 premium (would have been even more had we waited until the last 15 minutes).
Altogether we ended the week with a $1850 profit. A 90% return on the week.
Our overall return is now at an all time high at +267% since we started this competition, and +75% in 2022. After a rough few weeks during the rallies in July and August, we are finally back to our best. I do expect more turbulence in the weeks ahead, but still confident of capturing the right trend at the right time.
The S&P is -18% in 2022, and -7.6% since we started the competition. Still no other benchmark (commodities, etc.) comes even close to BASON’s performance this year.
…join the competition!
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