Results: Best week thus far 📈
NVDA-driven rally pushed BASON up by 6% last week
Quick summary:
The 2024 Q1 competition is up & running - click here.
Last week only one thing mattered - NVDA earnings. It beat by some margin (we covered it on Saturday) sending SPX up by 2%, and NDX by 3% the next day.
The BASON signal was a strong buy, so we went long before earnings and reaped the rewards on Thursday, making altogether 6% last week for the portfolio.
More data and earnings coming up this week. Core PCE inflation is on Thursday before open, and we also get consumer confidence, an updated Q4 GDP estimate, and some housing and manufacturing data.
On Saturday we told you we are staying nimble with respect to the divergence between macro and the AI-driven rally. This week’s price action should add even more clarity on these positions. Remember how the probabilities of a sell-off get adjusted with respect to flows and other conditions? We cover all this in our paid section, don’t miss it:
The competition
First of all, congrats to all of you getting it right last week and reaping the rewards. Judging on the realignment of the scores, many were perhaps surprised by the pure strength of the really (even the BASON overall didn’t see such a big impact), but getting direction right was very important last week.
Keep it up everybody! And remember, consistency is key to staying in the top. And good predictions, obviously.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
As we mentioned on Saturday, this entire week hinged on how NVDA earnings would go on Wednesday (as we noted in our podcast last Tuesday). The BASON signal was a buy, so we went long before earnings and reaped the rewards on Thursday, when we already hit the 6% mark for the week. NVDA pulled the S&P up 2% and NASADQ up 3% for the day, both back to all-time highs.
Note the pure force of NVDA pulling everything up with it. And this was just the broader market. The semiconductors rallied together with NVDA almost to the same impact.
During the California gold rush in the 1850s, it wasn’t the prospectors who were getting rich, it was the companies selling them shovels. In the AI space, NVDA and the like are selling shovels. No wonder they are reaping the biggest reward.
As for ORCA, this was the best week for the fund thus far, making over 6% for the week, beating its previous high mark of 5.7% back from November 2023. For many of you who are new to the whole thing by now you probably got an idea of how this works. In most weeks, the gains will be relatively limited, around 1% or 2%. About a third of the time, we will be losing the same amount, but a few weeks where we make big outsized gains (like last week) will carry the majority of the annual return.
We are now up 7.3% year-to-date. We’ll provide a brief overview of the quarterly results by the end of March.
NOTE: This is NOT financial advice. We are allowed to “generally solicit and advertise” the existence of the fund under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933 in the United States, but we are only allowed to respond to accredited investors. If you are not an accredited investor, please refrain from contacting us over this matter.
This week the most important data print comes on Thursday with core PCE inflation (the Fed’s favorite inflation number). We also get consumer confidence, an updated Q4 GDP estimate, and some housing and manufacturing data. In terms of earnings, not nearly as impactful as last week, but still some big and well traded names out there. Salesforce and AMC on Wed, Zoom was yesterday (a good beat, up 11% pre-market), Lowe’s and Macy’s today, Dell and HP on Thu, etc.
…join the $20,000 competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
And, as always, don’t forget to subscribe to the newsletter.