Results: Q1 winners
Plus Q2 competition is open
Quick summary:
The Q2 competition is open. Start early to reap the full reward - click here.
We have our Q1 winners! It was incredibly close, with first and second place separated by just 0.16 points. Impressive! Congratulations to the winners.
The focus of this week will be on the labor market. Friday's employment report is key (unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls, hourly earnings), with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions amidst inflation concerns. In addition, Powell gives a speech on Wed at noon.
In the paid section on Saturday we will talk about the potential impact of QT, and the “no-landing” scenario. Rates stay high, and that’s good for equities? Will dive deep into this. And then the week after, we talk about Q1 earnings.
Competition winners!
Q2 competition is now open! This is the perfect time for anyone who wanted to enter or missed their chance last quarter. The more you play, the better your odds of taking home our cash prizes.
And now, let’s toast to the winners of our Q1 competition! What a contest it's been!
Merely 0.16 points have decided the fate between the first and second spots. The level of competition was fierce, with the top 5 contenders all within a margin of just over half a point. Big cheers for User67583 (wishes to stay anonymous) for the win, you really worked hard for it! Enjoy the win and the $1,000 prize—well-earned!
NOTE: we will reach out with payments this week. If you’re new to the Leaderboard, and we don’t have your information, we will send an email requesting it. For those who have been in the top 20 before, expect the payments to come in by the end of the week.
Here is the top 20 ranking.
For those unfamiliar, each of the top 20 get awarded a cash prize, with the total winnings summed up to $5,000. First place gets $1,000, second $700, third $500, and so on. Places 11 to 20 get $100 each.
Congrats everyone once again. We hope you’ve enjoyed it and that you will keep playing.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, here is a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
The market's attention last week was largely focused on key economic indicators amidst a holiday-shortened trading week due to Good Friday. The spotlight was on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, which came within expectations. There was no substantial market impact on Monday following this report. The week was slightly more volatile than expected, but the range of the moves both down (Tue) and up (Wed) was limited.
The week caped off a slight loss for us, but overall we were quite happy with how the quarter finished. Have a read here if you missed it:
This week, market watchers are setting their sights on key labor market data, including Friday's crucial U.S. employment report. Remarks from Fed officials are happening throughout the week, with the key focus being on Powell on Wednesday at noon. I wouldn’t expect a big deviation from the press conference two weeks ago. Nothing changed in the meantime to shift their view, to be honest.
…join the $20,000 competition!
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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