Results: swing and a miss in Week 2
It was close, but it was a loss nevertheless
Welcome back dear subscribers! The competition is officially open for week 3 in Q1 2022. Get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Note #1: We’re having some trouble with updating the Leaderboard and the track rank over time feature for this week, but rest assure that all your scores are saved and will be available later tonight.
Note #2: Don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post)
Our second week in 2022 was a miss. It was yet another week of high volatility. The S&P500 moved from Wed’s high of 4595 (really close to our target, see below) to Fri’s low of 4451, a drop of 150 points (3.2%) in two days. FB earnings reported on Wed afternoon sent both its stock and the markets down a frenzy the next day. AMZN’s earnings reported after Thursday close suggested a rally on Friday, which was, at one point, going in our direction, but the rally lost steam in the final hour of the day. Unlike the week before when the Friday rally saved us and brought us back to <0.5% accuracy, this time it went close, but not close enough. At least for the S&P500, the cornerstone of our predictions.
We ended the week with a 2% error for the S&P, 1.17% for DJI, and around 2% for both AAPL and TSLA. So not particularly big errors, but the predicted direction was wrong for each of these.
Other indicators also experienced higher volatility; the 10-year T-bill moved from 1.74 to 1.93 in two days, while the VIX had a 10 point spread (>40% volatility) during the week. Still, their directions were captured correctly, albeit with smaller accuracy.
Interestingly, this was the first week our AAPL prediction went against us.
Profits Losses for the week?
Two weeks ago, our profits were saved by AAPL. Last week APPL added to the losses.
However, we limited the loss exposure, as always, reducing the $2,486 exposure to only a $1,134 loss. Specifically, the iron condor was kept to the bitter end, in hope of a recovery in the final hours of Friday. As it didn’t happen, we had to endure the full $520 loss. AAPL took out a $106 loss for its position (it was in the money, so the loss was not big), while the SPY call once again reached its stop-loss the day before and sold for $690, limiting our loss to $508.
Altogether we lost 45% of our exposure last week, meaning that the portfolio is down 4.5% in 2022, but still up 102% overall, and is still doing much better than the markets in general.
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DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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