Results W4: markets down, BASON up!
One of our favorite outcomes. 5/6 within 2%, 4/6 right direction
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Last week’s performance was spot on for SPX in both direction and precision, making a decent return as the markets contracted
Direction was correct in 4 out of 6 indicators (SPX, QQQ, AAPL, 10YT), while 5 out of 6 finished within 2% of its target
This week we get a few PMI readings and more retail earnings
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The leaderboard is stabilizing at the top, but just look at those tight margins. Great job everyone!
Keep it up and best of luck!
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Last week’s performance
Even though our performance came spot on, it was a rocky road to get there. After Tuesday’s big decline following the long weekend, on Wednesday markets were crawling up in anticipation of the Fed minutes. The reaction was more or less as expected: markets started to go down as the Minutes revealed the Fed was still very committed to keeping inflation down and adhering to their ‘higher for longer’ interest rate policy.
Then came Thursday’s rollercoaster ride. A V-shaped day; markets opened with a gap up, then engaged in a significant sell-off, and then shot up again to finish the day only marginally lower than at the open (and still well within our price range for the week). Then on Friday, after the hotter than expected PCE inflation report (we warned of the potential impact of this report last time), the gap down at the open was over 1.5%, and the trading for the rest of the day was mostly sideways.
For us, it reinforced our SPY condor positions delivering on their full premium, while also profiting from our SPY puts. DIA and VIX were not as good, but the SPY profits made for a very good return last week. We’ll give an overview of how the first month performed in our next newsletter, so make sure to catch it :)
It’s also good to see precision and direction improving across the board. The 10YT predictions are getting better and better, as are the QQQs. Won’t be long before we can engage these as well. Overall, 5 out of 6 indicators finished within the 2% target, and 4 out of 6 were in the right direction. The culmination was one of our favorite outcomes: markets going down, BASON going up!
This week will probably be less exciting than the previous one (probably! is the key word there). A few PMI reports and housing market indicators are coming out, as well as a few retailer earnings. So expect the market to be digesting the news from the week before and pricing it all in. Up or down? You tell us!
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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