Results W6&7: Up, Down. Repeat.
Making progress one week, reversing it the next.
Quick summary:
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Two weeks with similar market action; up - down - up. Making progress one week, reversing it the next
SPX touched 4200 twice in the last two weeks. Will it stay there?
Housing and labor markets in focus this week, after yesterday’s holiday
The 2023 Q2 competition is open for its eight week. We skipped the regular update last week given Saturday’s blog which discussed the ‘sell in May and go away’ mantra, focusing on both the short-run expectations and the long-run trends. So now we’ll give a two week update, while reminding you to take the survey, and keep chasing those prizes:
A few changes up front, but it’s now stabilizing up top. Keep it up, 5 more weeks left!
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
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Last week’s performance
The price action of the past two weeks was really interesting. Up-down-up is the most accurate description, and yet, there were ample opportunities to profit from both moves. We did so on the first week (+1.2%), and early on Wed of the second week, but the Thu reversal pushed us out and ended the week negative (-1.4%). We preserved the profits from the options strategies, but our macro positioning (long bonds, gold, and a eurodollar hedge) pushed us into the red for the week.
Regardless, it was a decent prediction in both weeks, and the volatility of our portfolio is contained and fully under control. Still waiting for a stronger weekly trend to jump on and make the bulk of our returns.
This week, a few numbers on the housing and jobs market are coming out, but other than that, we could see a continuation of the trend of the past two weeks. More up&down moves, for sure.
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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