Results W8: a good ol' 6/6 week!

All 6 indicators correctly predicted, portfolio up over 3% last week

Quick summary:

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• It was a 6/6 week, with 4 indicators finishing within 2% errors. Great accuracy and precision, portfolio up >3% for the week

• S&P500 and NASDAQ are continuing their bullish trends.

• After the debt celining debate being resolved (how surprising?), not many big moves expected this week. CPI, FOMC, and monthly opex are all next week.

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Last week’s performance

It was a 4-day trading week, no big moves were expected (well, apart from the obvious debt ceiling resolution), and yet the rally on Thursday and Friday was considerable as it broke a few upper resistance points. SPX is now close to its August rally 2022 highs, while NASDAQ is back to its April 2022 levels. It keeps looking like a make-it-or-break-it situation for markets. Either it’s a new bull market or one brutal bull trap. We’ll see soon.

Our predictions were that markets will move up across the board, with VIX going down and bond yields going up (as bond prices were expected to go down post-debt ceiling deal).

S&P and the Dow overshot our targets by some margin (although S&P ended within the 2% usual error), while QQQ finished almost perfectly on target, as did the 10Y yield. We even got AAPL quite close. VIX was the only surprise down - we got the direction right, but it went down over 20% last week. What a move.

This is the type of week we relish. Our strategy is purely long/short now, so being right direction across the board is an encouraging sign. The survey precision is improving, as our the portfolio returns.

Not much to expect this week. It’s looking like a low volume week in the run-up to what’s waiting behind the corner. Next week there is CPI on Tuesday, FOMC on Wednesday, and the monthly options expiry on Friday. It’s likely that big players might sit this one out.

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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.

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