Still consolidating. For now.

CPI coming up this week, earnings season begins.

Quick summary:

• The Q4 competition is up & running, first week is behind us, still a good time to enter - click here to join the action.

• Last week, escalating tensions from Iran’s attack on Israel led to sideways market movements, while robust U.S. employment data for September, showing over 250,000 jobs added and unemployment dropping to 4.1%, drove a brief market surge. Price action was sideways, market is still consolidating.

• CPI is released on Thursday, with additional insights expected from various Federal Reserve officials' remarks, potentially guiding future monetary policy and investor strategies. Also earnings season starts this week.

• Some turbulence could happen this week (notable sell yesterday), but over the weekend we take a sober look at things once again. Don’t miss it:

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The competition

As we kick off Q4, the final stretch of the year, the first week saw some excellent performances. Really accurate levels across all indicators (see below). This week’s release of the CPI presents a prime opportunity to sharpen focus and push for the top. Let’s use this time to secure our positions or make a strong move up the rankings as we aim for a spot on the year-end leaderboard.

Keep your strategies sharp and your eyes on the top!

NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.

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Last week’s performance

Last week’s market movements were predominantly influenced by three things: the expiration of the JPMorgan collar trade on Monday (final day of Q3), escalating geopolitical tensions following Iran’s attack on Israel on Tuesday, and the employment report on Friday. The JPM collar trade was covered over the weekend, and it was an important one. If you missed it, here it is.

Mid-week, the markets adopted a sideways trajectory as they digested the impact of the attack on Israel, maintaining a wary posture. However, the week closed strongly with the release of the U.S. jobs report on Friday, indicating the addition of over 250,000 jobs and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%. This robust employment data triggered a flurry of buying, lifting the market briefly before it settled near the SPX 5,751 level, subtly echoing the new collar’s upper value at 6,055, which may anchor the market again as we approach year-end.

Unfortunately for us, the weekly options pricing on Wednesday was very high (most likely due to rising implied volatility). As markets dwindled down over the next two days, even the great open (and close) on Friday couldn’t push us into positive territory, so we ended the week at a 1% loss.

This week attention shifts to the release of CPI on Thursday, anticipated to provide further clarity on inflation trends. As you may know by now, unemployment reports, GDP numbers, and inflation numbers are the things to watch (in that order) to figure out the direction of interest rate cuts from the Fed. So far the data, and the narrative behind it, has been overwhelmingly bullish. Let’s see if this continues.

Earnings season starts with a few banks on Friday (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, BlackRock), but the majority of those driving the market won’t come until the end of October.

…join the $20,000 competition!

Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($5000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:

DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.

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