The new survey competition begins now!
Awards for 2024 to be paid out soon.
Happy New Year 🎉 dear readers!
We're kicking off the first week of the Q1 competition - click here to join the action.NOTE: Market is closed on Thursday, Jan 9th, in observance of the passing of former President Jimmy Carter.
Recap of the New Reward System
Quarterly reward pot: $8,000 (up from $5,000).
Top 30 users: Rewarded quarterly (previously top 20).
Top 40 users: Rewarded annually (previously top 20).
Annual rewards tied to 3% of the Fund’s earnings, with 2025 starting at $30m AUM.
Designed to reward more users, boost participation, and enhance the BASON signal.
We’ll reach out this week to the Q4 and annual winners of the survey competition and finish paying out your prizes over the next few weeks.
The annual prize distribution is $20,000. Plus the $5000 for Q4. Both will be paid out simultaneously.
Introducing the New Rewards System for the 2025 Survey Competition
As part of our new competition for 2025 with an enhanced rewards system for the survey competition! Here's a quick rundown of the updates:
Quarterly reward pot increased: Now $8,000 (previously $5,000).
Top 30 rewarded quarterly: Up from the previous top 20.
Top 40 rewarded annually: Doubling the previous top 20.
Why the Change?
As the ORCA BASON Fund and our forecasting community grow, it’s time to evolve our rewards system. Since its launch in February 2023, the system has remained unchanged. After two strong years, we’re expanding it to reward more users while staying true to our core principles.
What Stays the Same?
Equal opportunity for all: Rewards are based purely on forecasting performance, regardless of past results or when users joined.
Scoring and ranking: Users will continue to be ranked weekly based on forecasting accuracy for the S&P 500, Dow Jones, QQQ, and VIX.
Consistency rewarded: The most consistent forecasters who participate regularly still have the best chance to win, with annual rewards tied to the Fund’s performance. Missing a week isn’t the end of the world, but regular participation matters.
What’s Changing?
We’ve redesigned the system to reward more users with bigger payouts:
Quarterly rewards: Increased to $8,000, shared among the top 30 users (previously top 20).
Annual rewards: Shared among the top 40 users (previously top 20).
With 2025’s starting AUM at $30m, there’s potential for much larger annual rewards compared to 2024’s $5m AUM.
In short, here’s the overview:
To ensure the changes deliver the desired results, we ran multiple simulations. These tested various factors like result distributions, the fund’s expected size, and annual performance. Our goal? A more inclusive rewards system that encourages consistent participation and strengthens the BASON signal.
Here’s a glimpse of one simulation: it assumes the 2024 ranking distribution stays the same, but with the annual reward pool tripled and the quarterly reward increased to $8,000.
Why We’re Making Changes
The updated rewards system is driven by three key factors:
Motivating Participation and Consistency: By increasing the quarterly reward, we aim to attract more new users and encourage our top forecasters to remain consistent. This enhances the accuracy and strength of the BASON signal.
Recognizing More Contributors: Around 40–50 top-performing users significantly impact the BASON signal’s accuracy, making the previous Top 20 reward group too narrow. Expanding the reward base ensures fair recognition and better engagement.
Aligning Rewards with Fund Growth: Our Fund grew 5X in 2024, and with continued growth and strong performance, the annual reward pool will increase substantially. Under the new system, rewards for current Top 20 ranks could see a 90% to 200% boost, with 20 more ranks added to the pool.
If 2024’s success is repeated, the upside for rewarded users will be even greater. Join the survey or spread the word, and together we’ll strive for strong BASON signals, great returns, and bigger rewards in 2025. Good luck!
NOTE: Please give us until the end of January to distribute the rewards, both annual and quarterly will be paid out together. We need to get the final accounting package done to calculate the full performance fees across all investors, take out the performance fees, and then we allocate the 3% of our profits to all of you.
The total annual prize money allocated for the 2024 annual competition will be $20,000. This means our total prizes given out in 2024 were $40,000.
Next year, the baseline is $32,000 (4 x $8000), and the annual reward could be double that. Fingers crossed!
…join the $32,000x competition!
Join our survey competition to get an opportunity to participate in our quarterly ($8000) and annual (3% of our profits) prize distributions:
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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