Week 10 results: the sell-off

For the first time in 10 weeks, predictions fell outside the 1% margin of error.

The survey is up & running again for this week, take 2-3 minutes and have your say:

For week 10 we predicted things coming back to normal by Friday. Instead, Friday marked the beginning of the sell-off that really progressed on Monday. So this time our predictions for the Dow and the S&P fell outside the 1% confidence intervals, but were still within the 2% intervals, as was the prediction for BTC. Interestingly, the 10-year yield prediction was spot on: 0% error!

The problems this time were the directional moves, particularly for Oil prices. Oil started its descent on Friday, whereas we saw it moving back up to over $75. So we’re facing our first week (out of 10) where the directional moves for most indicators (4 out of 6) have been called wrong.

If you wanted to engage in a profitable strategy last week following our prediction (the iron condor on the SPY), you would have made money if you used 2% confidence intervals for the SPY prediction, but you would have lost money - for the first time in 10 weeks - if you used the 1% confidence intervals.

We did the 1% confidence intervals, but lost $800 last week. For the past 4 weeks (from week 5 onward) we earned between $300 and $400 per week, so our overall balance is still positive. This fluke aside, we’ll again apply the same strategy for the following week and inform our avid readers of how we did.

Remember, all our survey users get the prediction two to three days before it happens. Plus there is a chance to win $100 each month. So don’t forget to participate and, if you wish, test the opportunity while it’s still being offered for free:

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.