Week 11 results: all green

Back to brilliant performance, with all 6 indicators called correctly.

The survey is up & running again for this week, take 2-3 minutes and have your say:

The BASON predictions for week 11 were of a robust rebound from the Monday lows, with lower volatility (i.e. the VIX). This is exactly what happened across all 6 indicators; 5 of them went up by some margin, while the VIX went down, as shown in the Table below. We had 6/6 called correctly, something that doesn’t happen every week. The results are even better considering that for each indicator they were much more precise than their weekly volatility, particularly for the VIX, the 10-year, and Bitcoin (which came within a 0.5% margin of error!).

Interestingly, in all cases, the BASON actually underestimated the strength of the rebound. DJI and S&P ended up 3% higher than their Monday close, surpassing even our optimistic predictions made on Tuesday.

Regardless, the prediction has fallen within the 2% confidence intervals, as always, which would have rendered a profitable options strategy (like the one we keep using for the past few weeks). This week, we collected another $360 from the SPY prediction ending up within the confidence intervals. The exposure is still low, as the survey is still in its testing phase. But with your help, dear reader, we can make it profitable for both of us :)

This week we’ll start testing another short-term options play in addition to the iron condor: a call (or put) position where the lower (higher) confidence interval is the strike price, with expiration on Friday. It will be another low-risk, low-profit strategy, but good enough to test the profitability of the predictions.

Remember, all our survey users get the prediction three days before it happens. Plus there is a chance to win $100 each month if you can beat all other survey users. So don’t forget to participate and, if you wish, test the opportunity while it’s still being offered for free:

Finally, after this week we’ll take a few weeks off during August, and will be back in September after analyzing all the data in greater depth. So don’t miss your chance this week!

DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind, nor should they be considered as such. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.