Last week of Q2
Have the markets reversed course? Results from W11
Quick summary:
New survey is up & running - click here.
Last week we missed direction on 3 of our main indicators, but had decent precision for almost all of them.
Markets seemed to have reversed course last week. Will it continue?
The PCE inflation index comes out on Friday, the final day of the quarter,
and we expect the Q1 GDP numbers coming out this week.
The 2023 Q2 competition is open for its final week. After this, as of the first week of July, we switch over to the new survey platform, more interactive, more user friendly, more professional. Hopefully it will attract many great predictors and make the competition even more fierce.
So make it count in the survey today, the top 5 race is still very much alive, as is the competition for the top 20. Good luck!
Last week’s performance
It was a 4-day trading week, and the trend clearly reversed (see the weekly chart below). Remember what we wrote about an expected trend reversal following May OPEX? Well, it’s happening after June OPEX. Friday 16th was the quarterly options expiry and the pull factors went the other way signaling a downtrend that continued even on Monday. Overall, June is looking to be a surprisingly good month, even if we get a downtrend continuation for the rest of this week.
Our predictions last week got caught up in the hype (a blog about a potential bull trap is coming up for the end of the week - stay tuned!). We expected the markets to continue going up, reaching 4400 for SPX by end of week. And even though Thursday’s price action signaled this might be the case, the Friday lows capped a disappointing week with a 1% decline for the portfolio.
In terms of our 2% accuracy, it was decent performance for 4 indicators, DJI, SPX, 10Y T-bill and AAPL, but with missed directional precision, we failed to make any decent profits from it. No big losses though.
This week, the final week of Q2, we have the PCE inflation coming out on Friday - this is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, so watch it closely before Friday open. We also get the Q1 GDP numbers this week. Should be exciting.
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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