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Why do you think that gold is a good alternative for 3rd scenario?

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Gold has been steadily increasing ever since its October lows, just about when the longer sideways trend started. The logic is this: with high uncertainty as to what might happen (recession, Fed rate hikes/cuts, inflation up/down), more investors are looking for a safe haven asset (of which gold is usually the most attractive candidate). It's returns are typically better than bonds in such environments, especially since we aren't quite sure as to what is driving bonds currently.

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