Results: 7/7 called right!
Back to all time highs, up >70% in 2022
Quick summary:
New survey is up & running - click here.
Second week in a row with stellar performance
All 7 indicators called in the right direction, 5 had errors <1.5%
$1,716 in profits collected, up 71% in 2022 (S&P down 17%)
Welcome back, dear subscribers. First of all, thank you for the great feedback provided in our quick survey on Saturday, much appreciated! We’re not changing the competition just yet, but we will start implementing some changes in Q4, and then redesign the whole tournament as of January 2023, as suggested by the previous post. So stick around, the tokens will be here, and everyone will have a chance to be rewarded as per their forecasting skill.
The Q3 competition is now open for week 10. The leaderboard is updated and available within the app. You know the game: get in, have your say on our 5 indicators and 2 stocks, take opportunity from our early info on price targets, and keep pushing for that $2000 prize!
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
Watch more on our YouTube channel. Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!
Last week’s accuracy & precision
Last week was hardly as volatile as the one before, so our positions remained in the money throughout all three days. We announced a continuation of the sell-off that started post Jackson Hole, and the markets did indeed continued to sell off. All of them: equities, bonds, and crypto.
Our performance was, once again, spot on. All 7 indicators called in the right direction, 5 of which came within <1.5% errors. Bitcoin was almost a perfect prediction, as were the VIX and S&P. The 10Y yield shot up even more than expected, while AAPL and TSLA dropped lower than expected.
This now makes two stellar weeks in a row. The profits collected, particularly last week, completely erased the previous 6 weeks of lackluster performance (see more below).
This only reemphasizes the importance of having a strong trading process that we set up, where every time we’re wrong we lose very little, and when we’re right, we more than make up for it. It also allows us to overcome periods of the aforementioned 6 weeks of small losses (or very small gains) quite successfully. It’s all about the asymmetry: win big when you’re right, lose little when you’re wrong. And we tend to be right quite often, as you might have noticed. Hence the big returns.
Performance: fifth best week thus far.
As mentioned last week, we opened the following positions:
…this week we're trading 388/389 to 403/404 SPY 02/09 iron condor (10 contracts) for $450 immediate gain.
We are buying a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 403 put 02/09 for $6.13
For DIA we are trading the following iron condor: 312/313 to 322/323 DIA 02/09 (10 contracts) for $400 immediate gain. We are also buying 1 DIA 02/09 322 put for $4.65. Stop loss is at 50% for all.
In addition, we are buying 100 UVXY contracts, at $10.18 per share. 5% stop-loss.
The condors expired well within our confidence intervals, so we pocketed the full premiums, and made $814 profits.
The SPY put, interestingly, reached its take profit (100%) already on Thursday, and was sold automatically at $12.86. The gains here were $673.
The DIA put didn’t reach the same take-profit on Thursday, and instead was sold later in the day on Friday at $7.45, pocketing a $280 profit.
The only loss was the UVXY, reaching it’s own stop loss of 5% on Friday morning, being sold at a $51 loss. This is a shame since a deeper stop-loss (say, 10%) would have kept the position and made money come the end of the day on Friday.
Altogether we ended the week with $1,716.
Our overall return is back close to its all time high, at +257% since we started this competition, and +71% in 2022.
The S&P is -17% in 2022, and -6.4% since we started the competition. No other benchmark (commodities, etc.) comes even close to BASON’s performance this year.
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
NOTE: Remember, by participating in the competition and leaving your email in the user profile, you get our predictions before everyone else (on Wednesday after the markets open). Leaving your email is the only way for us to contact you. If you want it, ofc.
DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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