Results: 7/7 for a new ATH
Up 86% in 2022, up 288% overall.
Quick summary:
New survey is up & running - click here.
This is the final week in Q3 - good luck!
Last week saw another good performance and a 108% return
7/7 correct direction, but errors slightly higher
This pushed us to another all time high, +288% overall, +86% in 2022
Welcome back, dear subscribers. The Q3 competition is almost over, we are in its final week. We will announce the winner next Tuesday here on the newsletter (and already on Friday on our Twitter account).
So go ahead and grab your last chance to win our $2000 prize this quarter:
Note: If you haven’t already, don’t forget to leave your email after you finish the prediction, so that we can send you early results on Wednesday - see the end of the post.
For all those new to the whole thing, watch this quick video guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works:
Watch more on our YouTube channel. Thanks for participating, and keep having fun!
Last week’s accuracy & precision
After a few lackluster performances during the summer, September has been a very good month for the BASON. In the 5 weeks since Jackson Hole in August, we annulled all the losses from the previous period and are piercing through all time highs for the second week in a row.
This last week though, it was all about direction. Our errors were higher this time, given that volatility of each indicator was much higher (6% and 7% ranges by S&P and DJI is not something you see very often). But the direction was spot on for each indicator, meaning that our puts did most of the work, and we let them run to deliver an outsized return.
Another good thing about last week was our warning to our users that a post-FOMC event might trigger a brief relief rally due to high implied volatility prior to the event. This did happen, albeit only for 45 minutes, on Wednesday, and we were patient before entering into our positions for the week. Otherwise, our puts might have reached a stop-limit already in those 45 minutes. Patience paid off.
We opened our trades in the final hour of trading on Wednesday, and let them run all the way to just before the Friday close (for the puts obviously; the condors got stopped out earlier on Friday).
The week ended by retesting the June lows. Will it continue this week?
Performance: 90% weekly return
As mentioned last week, we opened the following positions:
…we're trading 372/373 to 386/387 SPY 23/09 iron condor (10 contracts) for $520 premium. Stop loss is at 50%.
We bought a put for downside protection, 1 SPY 386 put 23/09 for $4.35. Stop loss is at 50%.
For DIA we are trading the following iron condor: 298/299 to 310/311 DIA 23/09 (10 contracts) for $300 immediate gain. We also bought 1 DIA 23/09 310 put for $5.30. Stop loss is at 50% for both.
Condors were stopped out and we lost a total of $527 for both of them. The puts on the other hand delivered a stunning return, specifically because we didn’t place the take-profits for this week - it was always gonna be a volatile week, so we would either lose 50% if we got it wrong and the markets rallied, or gain a multi-100% banger if we’re right.
The SPY put was sold for $19.67, achieving a profit of $1,532 (+252%), and the DIA put was sold for $15.94, achieving a profit of $1,064 (+101%).
In total our profit for the week was $2,069 (or +108% from our exposure).
Our overall return is now once again at an all time high of +288% since we started this competition, and +86% in 2022. During a huge bear market and amidst all this volatility and uncertainty.
The S&P is -22% in 2022, and -12% since we started the competition. Still no other benchmark (commodities, etc.) comes even close to BASON’s performance this year (as you’ve already seen in our weekend overview).
…join the competition!
Participate in our survey competition regularly to get our predictions on Wednesday and take opportunity from our early info on price targets.
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DISCLAIMER: This prediction survey is still in its testing phase. Neither the survey nor its results act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum bears no responsibility for your investment choices based on these predictions.
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