Results: a slow week
Not much action. More is expected this week.
Quick summary:
New survey, for Q4 competition, is up & running - click here.
After a massive rally the week before, last week was range-bound and pretty boring. Our result was an anemic 0.8% decline, as we rarely profit from sideways trading with no big price action.
However, this week starts with the CPI report that came out today. It came in lower than expected (at 3.2%), inducing a knee-jerk up reaction.
The events from November 1st triggered an interesting overall reaction on markets, shifting the macro narrative a bit. They are pretty much defining the shape of markets over the coming months. Don’t miss our analysis from the weekend, detailing what we think will happen in markets over the coming months.
The Q4 competition is its seventh week, make sure you jump into the survey. Prizes are as last quarter, $5,000 distributed across the top 20 participants.
Some more changes on the leaderboard, except for the two front-runners. Exciting as usual, especially given that 2 points separate the first 9 users. Keep it up!
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, here is a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
After a week like Nov 3rd, a slower week was actually expected. SPX was range-bound between 4350 and 4390 for most of the week (within 1% range), until it broke up on Friday, ending at 4415 (still not much of a weekly move). There were no major news, Powell did have a conference on Thursday, which could have triggered a brief sell-off. But for the most part, a pretty boring week.
In such weeks we rarely make money. Not just due to sideways trading, but also due to no significant price action. Even the one on Friday mere made up for some losses we incurred over the week. We thus ended up at a negative 0.8%.
Is this type of price action a sign of things to come? The macro playbook we keep following is still in place, but we may have shifted to a different phase. What does this mean for equities? Have a look here:
This week however already started with exciting news. Inflation is back down to 3.2%, ending a three month rebound. Naturally, this created an immediate knee-jerk up reaction on the futures market.
How will this affect the rest of the week, you might be wondering? You tell us!
…join the $20,000 competition!
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DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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