What does this mean for your portfolio?
historically it takes a bit more than a single intra-day dip on the 2-10...
https://twitter.com/yieldcurvetrack/status/1507072505197973518?s=20&t=XgltJOFuFQP1mqVPtepgJQ
True, but the trend is clearly in that direction and it got there faster than ever.
As for the 3mo to 10y spread, I mention that in the text. The3mo rate is still at 50bps
It usually closely follows the Fed funds rate, so this spread won’t go down until after at least a few rake hikes this year.
This makes the 3mo10y spread a lagging rather than leading indicator
actually the 3m-10yr is considered historically the most accurate. it's the one used in the original fed study
https://twitter.com/yieldcurvetrack/status/1505628304988012544?s=20&t=gO0K8IlJ96mLKIAYtLDzog
(actually the original original research came from u chicago 1986) :)
historically it takes a bit more than a single intra-day dip on the 2-10...
https://twitter.com/yieldcurvetrack/status/1507072505197973518?s=20&t=XgltJOFuFQP1mqVPtepgJQ
True, but the trend is clearly in that direction and it got there faster than ever.
As for the 3mo to 10y spread, I mention that in the text. The3mo rate is still at 50bps
It usually closely follows the Fed funds rate, so this spread won’t go down until after at least a few rake hikes this year.
This makes the 3mo10y spread a lagging rather than leading indicator
actually the 3m-10yr is considered historically the most accurate. it's the one used in the original fed study
https://twitter.com/yieldcurvetrack/status/1505628304988012544?s=20&t=gO0K8IlJ96mLKIAYtLDzog
(actually the original original research came from u chicago 1986) :)