Quick summary:
The Q2 competition is up & running - click here.
In our new podcast, live from iConnections SALT in NYC this week, Scott and I discuss the structural market trends, upcoming NVDA earnings, pro-cyclical fiscal policy, and the state of the crypto market. Have a listen!
Last week PPI rose to 2.2% from March’s 1.8%, while CPI decreased slightly to 3.4% from 3.5%. Core CPI is trending downward at 3.6%, while Core PPI ticking up. Inflation still sticky, although the print was met with relief.
The market rallied on both data release days, especially after the CPI report. Rate cut probabilities for this year have increased, with the market continuing its bullish momentum post-FOMC.
NVDA is set to report on Wednesday, with expectations of strong growth driven by the demand for AI technologies. It’s a market mover this one, so keep an eye on it.
Podcast
Today’s podcast is coming in live from iConnections SALT in New York. Topics:
where is the market heading this summer?
will there be an NVDA-driven catalyst this week?
US deficit spending and pro-cyclical fiscal policy
What’s happening with the crypto market?
The competition
This week's leaderboard is lit with some seriously good numbers, especially in the SPX and QQQ categories. Big shoutout to our top 10 for nailing it during a tough market week. Keep up the great work and continue to lead the pack!
Consistency is key to staying in the top. And good predictions, obviously.
NOTE: For all those new to the whole thing, read more about it here or watch a video of Scott and myself guiding you through the survey, showing you all its features, and briefly explaining how the competition works.
Last week’s performance
Markets reacted interestingly to the latest inflation data. PPI increased to 2.2% from 1.8%, while CPI slightly dropped to 3.4% from 3.5%. Despite the mixed signals, the market rallied on both days of the data releases, driven by rate cut hopes and supportive structural flows. Major indices like the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and the Dow hit new highs, with the Dow crossing the significant 40,000 mark. This continued the bullish momentum from the post-FOMC rally, with the Fed's supportive stance and completed deleveraging playing key roles.
Looking ahead, all eyes are on NVDA's earnings report, expected to influence markets like an FOMC event. Historical trends in election years also point to a strong summer for equities. However, caution is warranted. Potential headwinds, such as slowing growth and rising unemployment, could disrupt the positive trend. Meme stocks like GameStop and AMC saw volatile swings, underscoring the risks of social media-driven trades. This is not like 2021, don’t be fooled going back in.
DISCLAIMER: Neither the survey nor any of the contents of this website can act as investment advice of any kind. The results of the survey need not correspond to actual market preferences or trends, so they should be interpreted with caution. Oraclum Capital, LLC (Henceforth ORCA) is a management company responsible for running the ORCA BASON Fund, LP, and for organizing a survey competition each week, where it invites the subscribers to its newsletter (this website) to participate in an ongoing prediction competition. The information presented on this website and through the survey competition should under no circumstances be used to solicit any investment advice, nor is it allowed to be of commercial use to any of its readers. The survey and this website contain no information that a user may use as financial or investment advice. All rights reserved. Oraclum Capital LLC.
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ORCA podcast ep #11: Live from SALT